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For the first time in many years we saw a decline in ag exports to foreign countries in 2023. Dr. Andrew Muhammad with UTIA expects a further decline in ag exports for 2024.
Thomas Capps
Decline in ag exports. Hello and welcome to Tennessee Home and Farm Radio. I’m Thomas Capps.
Dr. Andrew Muhammad
The decline is so severe that we may experience the largest agricultural trade deficit we’ve seen.
Thomas Capps
It’s a new year with a new slate for trade of ag commodities. In 2023 we saw for the first time in many years a decline in ag exports to foreign countries. Dr. Andrew Muhammad with the University of Tennessee believes we’ll see more of that in 2024. USDA
Dr. Andrew Muhammad
USDA is forecasting an even greater decline in 2024, and in fact, the decline is so severe that we may experience the largest agricultural trade deficit we’ve seen throughout the history of the USDA tracking agricultural trade in mind you why this is important is because we’ve been a net exporting country. for just decades.
Thomas Capps
The reasons for the decline in exports are layered, but the big culprit is China and a growing competitor.
Dr. Andrew Muhammad
We negotiated a phase one trade deal with China that committed China to certain purchases for a two year period, and that’s ended. As a result, China did a lot of investing in South America, Brazil in particular, Brazil has emerged as a major competitor, all of our major exports, Brazil has either surpass the United States, or are at least on par with the United States.
Thomas Capps
The USDA is looking for customers elsewhere. They want
Dr. Andrew Muhammad
producer groups to focused on Southeast Asia. And so there’s significant growth, economic growth in that region.
Thomas Capps
The impact of this on farmers is still uncertain, it could trigger an adjustment and commodity prices temporarily bring them down or they could remain high due to less yields in other countries.
Dr. Andrew Muhammad
It’s not so much about total excess supply within our markets domestically, that’s an issue. It’s much more about, is the world producing too much? As long as there is a global demand somewhere then all commodities will find its market.
Thomas Capps
For Tennessee Home and Farm Radio, I’m Thomas Capps.
